When I was a kid, I went through a phase of putting dominoes in a row, knocking the first one over, and then seeing them bang into each other and all fall over. It was great fun. But sometimes, the first one was not at the proper distance, and it just nudged the second into wobbling.
This year, the first domino has been pushed in such a way that all the dominoes will now fall over.
Those who have been watching will know that yearly average temperatures shot up to over 1.6°C, apparently because of the El Niño effect last year. However, it did not have a substantial impact, so it seemed something else was happening. Now that El Niño is gone, we have had a statistically significant number of monthly record temperature figures to conclusively show that we have jumped 0.2°C in a year and are now over 1.5°C.
This summer was 1.52°C above the pre-industrial baseline. That 0.2°C is the domino that triggers a cascade towards 2°C. Most tipping points will have been breached at that point, sending us into a Hothouse Earth.
All this has been known for a long time, so the 0.2°C jump should come as no surprise. We are now definitely going over 2°C — not least because we have only 4–5 years left at the present global emissions level before we run out of the “carbon budget” for 2°C. After 30 years of suicidal intent, global political systems are simply incapable of making the cuts needed.
Sometimes, in life, it is just too late. That does not mean inevitable extinction; what is inevitable is something more concrete: social revolution — and with it, the choice of whether humanity wants to survive.
One way or another, the near future will be nothing like the past.
Upcoming Events
Oct 20 — Free As A Bird Prison Talk (Zoom link removed)
As always, you can sign up for nonviolent civil resistance with Just Stop Oil in the UK or via the A22 Network internationally.
The Climate Situation is F*cked
Help me to get on with the job of sorting it out.
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Rev21 is gearing up for big collaborations – working internationally to coordinate effective civil resistance and spread文化 frameworks for transformation. Come and experience how it feels to get inside this vision. Then find your place inside what we are building. |
